Mathihalli Madan Mohan
Senior Journalist and Columnist
Hubli 580032
(Attn Mr. Guruprasad)
Tsunamic effect
Hubli, 7th
Apr 2014
A sort of
Tsunamic effect in voting on the polling day is expected to settle the question
of who outsmarts who between the Congress and BJP who are involved in a sea saw
tussle for the 28 loksabha seats from Karnataka.
BJP is going
all out to improve if not retain the tally of 19 seats it had won in 2009. The
Congress which had been able to win only six seats last time wants to replicate
its win of 2013 assembly election to substantially improve its loksabha tally.
Every seat that the Congress prevents BJP would put break on the march of the
prime ministerial candidate towards the Delhi throne.
The Tsunami comes
in the form of first time voters numbering more than 25 lakhs, constituting
little more than 5% of the 462 lakh electorate in Karnataka. The significance
of the impact lies in the fact both
Congress and BPJ are almost equally poised as for as the their electoral base in Karnataka in
concerned, and in 2013 assembly
election, the gap between the electoral base was narrow, with Congress
raking up 114 lakhs as against 112 lakhs of the BJP.
The
increase in the enrolment has acquired Tsunamic dimensions this time. As
against an average of 35 lakhs increase in the five year period separating two
elections, 25 lakhs, has been added within one year between the assembly
elections of 2013 to the parliament elections of 2014. According to the Chief
Electoral Officer the enrolment rose by 15 lakhs within three months between
January and March this year.
The average
increase of electorate in the 28 parliamentary constituencies has been around
90,000, ranging from the lowest of
51,000 in Kanara to 2.74 lakhs in Bangalore North. The increase is more
than one lakh in the five parliamentary constituencies of Gulbarga (1.67
lakhs), Mysore (1.10 lakhs), Bangalore (1.66 lakhs), Bangalore North (2.74
lakhs), Bangalore Central (1.75 lakhs) and Bangalore South (2.14 lakhs). In six
constituencies of Bijapur, Raichur, Bellary,
Haveri, Davangere, Mandya, and
Chickballapur, it has been more than 90,000.
This newly
enrolled voters, constitutes one bulk segment of voters which are sure voters,
which would not miss the opportunity to exercise their constitutional right to
cast vote in an elections, unlike their seniors. The paradox has been that the most of the poll
analysts both of the print and electronic media have not taken congnisance of
this segment of voters, despite the decisive role played in the hustings. The behavior of the political
parties is no way different. None of them have anything to offer to this
segment in their manifestoes.
.Being in an
impressionable age they are prone to take decisions more
on perception than anything else. And this has resulted in the change of the
government, as has happened in West Bengal and Tamilnadu, when Mamata Bannerji
worsted the Left Front government and Karunanidhi’s DMK government was packed
home by Jayalalitha in Tamilnadu.
Nearer home,
we have witnessed the spectacle of the BJP galloping towards political
ascendancy in a matter of three assembly elections of 1999, 2004 and 2008.
The election statistics show that while
the vote base of the Congress and JDS remained almost stagnant during the
period, all the increase in poll turn out went exclusively to the kitty,
helping the BJP to close the yawning gap which separated its vote base with
that of Congress and the two parties evened out almost in 2008. In 2009
loksabha election, this phenomenon resulted in being sending the biggest
contingent of 19 MPs to loksabha for the first time.
In 2013
assembly election in Karnataka, the trend slightly underwent a change. The new
voters instead of plumping exclusively for BJP also extended their patronage to
other two parties, namely the Congress and JDS all being in varying degrees.
Despite the split in the party, the BJP, and the two splinter outfits namely
the KJP of Yeddyurappa and BSR Congress of Sriramulu, polled between themselves
an extra 15 lakhs over and above what they had received in the 2008 election.
What would
happen this time? Whether the new voters go whole hog backing the BJP as before
or like what happened in 2013 give part of the support to Congress? The
presence of the AAP factor as a claimant for attention of the new voters cannot
be ignored. Karnataka tops the list of the states contributing to the
mobilization of funds for the resource
strapped AAP and hence expected to substantial support especially from the
Bangalore, where between the four
parliamentary constituencies account for
one third of the newly enrolled voters. This is certainly bad news both for
Congress and BJP.
It is well-known
that Narendra Modi has emerged as an
iconic figure among the young and Rahall Gandhi nowhere come anywhere near that. Besides, the
double anti-incumbency factors both at the Central and State Governments have
kept the people including the youngsters away from Rahul Gandhi. One would not
be entirely wrong to assume that this section may go with the BJP as before.
As the chart
given along makes it clear, the BJP was in the lead in the ten constituencies
of Belgaum, Chikodi, Gulbarga (represented by Union Minister for Railways Mr
Mallikarjun Kharge), Bidar (represented by Mr Dharam Singh, former Chief
Minister) Koppal, Bellary, Dharwad, Kanara, Shimoga (from where Mr. Yeddyurappa
is contesting) and Tumkur, the JDS in the two constituencies of Hassan
(represented by Devegowda) and Mandya (represented by the film star Ramya of
Congres). And the Congress leads in the remaining sixteen constituencies, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Raichur, Haveri, Davangere, Udupi
Chickmagalur, D Kannada, Chitradurga,
Mysore, Chamaranagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central,
Bangalore South (represented by Mr. Ananth Kumar of BJP), Chikballapur
(represented by Union Minister Mr.
Veerappa Moily), and Kolar.
If the pro
BJP propensities of the new voters are factored into the situation, eleven of the sixteen
constituencies where Congress has been in the lead become vulnerable, while the
BJP consolidates in the constituencies where it has been in the lead
As for as the
JDS is concerned, its tally is unlikely go beyond two seats. This is basically
for two reasons Firstly, the voters have tendency to move away from JDS in
parliament elections. Secondly new voters have hardly any trust in the JDS.
Highlights
·
Tsunami of new voters during polling
·
Number put at 25 lakhs highest ever done
·
During
past three months more than 15
lakhs enrolled
·
Nobody has taken cognisance ofthis category.
·
Mostly vote for BJP
·
2013
elections brought BJP almost closer to Congress in terms of vote base
·
BJP leads in ten , the Congress in 16 in 2003
polls
·
New voters entry makes eleven Congress led
constituencies vulnerable.
|
2013
Assembly Performanance
|
2014 LS Polls
|
|||||
|
Cong
|
BJP*
|
JDS
|
Diff
|
First time voters
|
||
|
Cong/BJP
|
Lead
|
|||||
|
1Chikodi
|
399096
|
499999
|
87985
|
-100903
|
BJP
|
58834
|
|
2Belgaum
|
307803
|
464431
|
102091
|
-156628
|
BJP
|
81472
|
|
3.Bagalko
|
503540
|
453274
|
82103
|
50266
|
Cong
|
77780
|
|
4Bijapur
|
371194
|
307765
|
240580
|
63429
|
Cong
|
95351
|
|
5Gulbarga
|
399302
|
400084
|
113668
|
-782
|
BJP
|
160328
|
|
6Raichur.
|
382354
|
327767
|
228635
|
54587
|
Cong
|
99226
|
|
7Bidar
|
275526
|
437370
|
170419
|
-161844
|
BJP
|
57837
|
|
8Koppal
|
404374
|
456898
|
144577
|
-52524
|
BJP
|
67754
|
|
9Bellary
|
337329
|
414420
|
109796
|
-77091
|
BJP
|
90932
|
|
10Haveri
|
500753
|
492937
|
36571
|
7816
|
Cong
|
91933
|
|
11Dharwad
|
327346
|
376749
|
155666
|
-49403
|
BJP
|
81532
|
|
12Kanara
|
298930
|
299420
|
212236
|
-490
|
BJP
|
51566
|
|
13Davangere
|
494372
|
410350
|
137820
|
84022
|
Cong
|
93253
|
|
14Shimoga
|
284321
|
408936
|
267730
|
-124615
|
BJP
|
73991
|
|
15UdupiChic
|
374814
|
366555
|
76338
|
8259
|
Cong
|
61165
|
|
16Hassan
|
395205
|
267696
|
480364
|
127509
|
JDS
|
85923
|
|
17DKanna
|
482896
|
471816
|
45888
|
11080
|
Cong
|
68412
|
|
18Chitradurga
|
505023
|
381359
|
200687
|
123664
|
Cong
|
77152
|
|
19Tumkur
|
274662
|
426572
|
416402
|
-151910
|
BJP
|
80245
|
|
20Mandya
|
347058
|
60103
|
542490
|
286955
|
JDS
|
94896
|
|
21Mysore
|
443463
|
288033
|
303172
|
155430
|
Cong
|
110059
|
|
22Chamarajnagar
|
382022
|
337877
|
198575
|
44145
|
Cong
|
58557
|
|
23BangRural
|
500947
|
304265
|
468468
|
196682
|
Cong
|
166128
|
|
24BangNorth
|
489864
|
369994
|
322666
|
119870
|
Cong
|
274763
|
|
25BangCent
|
324315
|
272642
|
131579
|
51673
|
Cong
|
175009
|
|
26BangS
|
411494
|
373589
|
130796
|
37905
|
Cong
|
214629
|
|
27Chikballapur
|
430793
|
261033
|
312080
|
169760
|
Cong
|
99039
|
|
28KOlar
|
313511
|
121160
|
368127
|
192351
|
Cong
|
88289
|
|
*Combined votes of BJP+KJP+BSRCong
|
||||||
==============================================
|
Comparative performanance in Parliament and Assembly elections
|
||||||
|
Cong
|
BJP
|
JDS
|
(all in lakhs)
|
|||
|
2013A
|
114.1
|
101.38
|
63.29
|
|||
|
2009P
|
92.5
|
102.28
|
33.35
|
|||
|
2008A
|
88.62
|
87.11
|
48.29
|
|||
|
Diff
|
3.88
|
15.17
|
-14.94
|
|||
|
2004P
|
92.47
|
87.36
|
51.35
|
|||
|
2004 A
|
88.61
|
71.86
|
52.2
|
|||
|
Diff
|
3.86
|
15.5
|
-0.85
|
|
||
A –stands for
Assembly election
P – stands
for parliament election.
Eom o7.04.14
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