This is a column on the happennings in Karnataka, with particular reference to current affairs bringing to bear more than four decade old experience in covering the current affairs in Karnataka.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Battle for negative votes


Mathihalli Madan Mohan
Senior Journalist and Columnist
Hubli 580032
Mobile: 94480-74872



Battle for negative votes


            HUBLI, 11th Apr 2013.
           
            The forthcoming battle for ballots for the assembly elections in Karnataka turns to be battle for negative rather than positive votes.
            For vying for top honours are the two principal political parties in Karnataka, the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress with an almost identical electoral base. (The JDS, the other political party  in the frey lags too far behind)  And both of them have been singularly disadvantageous position to expect additional positive votes to enlarge their base. Their dismal performanance in discharging their respective responsibilities has not exactly endeared them to the electorate. Under the circumstances, more could be wrought for them to retain their base and check its erosion, lest the negative votes turn out to be favourable to their opponents.
            Take the Congress. They are expecting to catch power, which has eluded them for the past two elections, namely the 2004 and 2008. But the problem is that its vote base has become stagnant, since the last election it won in 1999.    Not many people may be aware of the fact that the party has not been able to secure single additional vote since in 1999. The party has been unable to secure even one single extra vote in the two elections which ensued since then. This was despite the fact that electorate went up by 58 lakhs   and polled up votes were up by 39 lakhs during the period. As a matter of fact, there has been a slight decline. The party which polled 90.77 lakhs in 1999 lost two lakh votes in 2004 and though it tried to make in 2008, it still could not come to the 1999 level.  It is not clear whether the Congress strategists at the state and national level have noted this disturbing trend. If they are aware, there is no sign that they have learnt proper lesion and have planned the necessary corrective action.
            There is however a silver lining for Congress. It is the loyalty factor.  Barring the minor deviation, its voters have remained steady with the party, whether the party won or lost the polls. Its performanace good or bad,  the change or otherwise  in the stewardship of the party at the state level, or the failure of party to project anybody as the future Chief Minister during the pre election period, have hardly mattered.
            It is a similar story for the BJP with some basic difference.    Its climbing up of the political ladder has been quite fast. After getting a break in 1994, when it could win 40 seats and notched up 35 lakhs and ensconced itself as the principal opposition party in the assembly for the first time, it has never looked back but virtually galloped to bridge the yawning gap which separated from Congress.  In about fourteen years spanning three elections,  it has more than doubled its vote share taking it up 88.57 lakhs and was  catapulted to  power for the first time in 2008.
             At a time, when Congress went through a trot of drought of votes in the 1999-2008 period, the BJP was experiencing bonanza as it were.   In the 2008 election, the party was just  short by a one lakh votes from Congress.  Even this was bridged in the string of bye elections which the BJP masterminded through Operation Kamala, in enticing the opposition legislators to its ranks, by making them resign from their party, and get them elected on the BJP tickets in the bye elections.  In the process   BJP was able to establish a minor lead over Congress in the votes tally, for the first time in sixty year old history of the state.
            Two plausible explanations can be offered for the BJP’s runaway success. Firstly, the BJP was free from the type of confusion of leadership which had dogged Congress. It was steadfastly pursuing the goal of power under the continued unchallenged leadership of Yeddyurappa. He remained the unquestioned leader before and after 2008 election, until he parted the company of the parent party, miffed as he was by the attitude of the party high command in making him resign in the context of the corruption charges and putting him in dog house saying that he could not come back to power till he was cleared of the charges.
            Secondly, not only the  voters remained loyal to the party, newly enrolled voters plumped for the party almost enmasse   This was  because   BJP positioned itself as a credible alternative to Congress after  short-lived  Janata Dal;s experiment of floating the party to capitalize on the growing anti Congress mood among the voters. Somehow, the BJP proved to be a hit with newly enrolled voters, who were yet to make their political choice.
             Under the circumstances can the BJP and Congress be able to keep the flock together. None is able to wager a bet at the moment, in view of the ground    political realities.  Both the parties have identical problems like lack of leadership and proactive organizational structure.  However BJP’s task appears much more arduous than Congress.
            The Congress is in a state of disarray organisationally, at the state and district levels. It has a set of leaders who are preoccupied with pursuing their own agenda rather than working for the party.  The frequent change of leadership has hardly improved the matters. As an opposition party in the assembly its performanance has been uninspiring and patchy. But its only saving grace has been the absence of any serious contenders to wean away the party’s base.
            But for the BJP the problem is different. Apart from its traditional rivals, it has to reckon with its own splinter groups headed by party men turned political adversaries namely Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu for cutting into the party base.  The possible loss as a consequence is difficult to quantify at the moment and even the most corrigible optimists within BJP concede that “some” loss is going to be there.
            In particular Yeddyurappa out of the party has proved to be a biggest bugbear that BJP has to contend with. Besides berating the party day in and day out, the Yeddyurappa has been making the BJP spend sleepless nights by his slow moves to wean away the party legislators.   His exit has exposed the chinks in its armoury, that it is bereft of the second line leadership. Both Jagadish Shettar, projected as the next Chief Minister and the newly anointed the party president,  Prahlad Joshi, are having a torrid time because of the antics of Yeddyurappa.
            Keeping the flock together has assumed importance   in the context of the fact the victory margin was less than 3000 in about 45 constituencies the BJP and the Congress being the major beneficiaries. Around the 16 constituencies, saw a keenly fought triangular contest. And all are on chopping block basically since these are vulnerable in the event of the even slight erosion in the base. Any slight tilt is expected to upset the political calculations.
            Newly enrolled voters, who are yet to make a political choice in the elections, are the real game changers in any elections generally, since basically apolitical nature; they would be making the political choice for the first time.  The upset results in the West Bengal and Tamil nadu are a case in point. In Karnataka, they have provided the political sinews to BJP. The number of newly enrolled voters for the current election is tentatively estimated at 15 lakhs. Would they stick to the tradition or go away from the BJP.  It is anybody’s guess. And herein lies the tantalizing uncertainty over the outcome of the next electoral battle.
,            It is anybody’s guess and herein lies the tantalizing uncertainty that awaits the political parties, who are getting ready to fight the electoral battle.
           


Electoral Performanace from 1994-2008
Karnataka Assembly Elections













Electorate

Valid Votes

Congress
BJP
JDS











2008

403.63

261.56

90.91
88.57
50





65.11









%

36.86
34.59
19.11


seats




80
110
28











2004

385.86

251.29

88.61
71.18
52.26



%

65.17









%

35.26
28.32
20.79


seats




65
79
58





















1999

342.84

222.25

90.77
45.98
23.16















%

40.84
20.68
10.42


seats




132
44
10











1994

308.35

207.05

55.8
35.17
69.44



%











%

26.95
16.98
33.53


seats




34
40
115
*


















*  Undivided J.D)




















(Source: Election Commission of India)
Eom 07.26 hrs.   29th March 2013

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Journalist with standing of more than fifty years in the profession. Retired as the Special Correspondent of The HINDU and has become a columnist on current affairs, the panchayats and other allied subjects