Mathihalli Madan Mohan

Senior Journalist and Columnist

Hubli 580032

Mobile: 94480-74872

Wave in Karnataka

           

Hubli, 21st Apr 2014

It can be confidently said that there was indeed a wave in Karnataka, which has resulted in higher poll turn out in the just held poll for 28 loksabha seats from the state, though the cause of wave is a debating factor, which can be resolved only when the counting begins next month.

One of the frequently asked question during the days preceding polling was whether there was a wave in Karnataka, with the two main averring it to be so, with the BJP attributing to  prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, while Congress alluding to performanance of the one year old government of Mr. Siddaramaiah. Others dismissed it as saying that there were no visible signs of wave.

The poll turn out on 17^th    confirmed that there was indeed a wave, which was more subterranean than visible, and swept Karnataka as unobtrusively as possible. For the Karnataka voters bucked the tendency of a lower turn out in parliament poll separately held  and what was noticed was record turn out with two thirds of the electors turning up at the polling booth on their own  despite the scorching sun in most of the area, dispelling the impressions that polling day having been sandwiched between the series of holidays, would have an adverse effect on polling, with most of them in urban areas  especially in Bangalore going out on a holiday instead of exercising the prerogative conferred by the Constitution. Even in Bangalore, which has four parliamentary constituencies, there was a comparatively a higher turnout though turn out failed to reach the sixty percent mark as has been seen in constituencies outside Bangalore.

It has been a common experience that poll turnout in a loksabha election, when separately held is always lower than the assembly elections. This is mainly because of the lower intensity of the electioneering. And some of them, who have not voted for the national parties, have a tendency to stay away from the booths.  But lower turnout notwithstanding, the two national parties tend to get higher electoral support, because of another tendency noticed of the voters who had not voted for the national parties in the assembly election veering round to either of the national parties in a parliament poll.

There were indeed other factors, which would induce lower turn out. For the electioneering by the parties, hardly raised any new issues or debates on ideological plane to enthuse the voter.  The two political rivals, the Congress and BJP, involved in no holds barred tussle for occupying the Delhi throne, ran a campaign, which was full of invectives and mutual recrimination, which caused more nausea than anything. Their manifestos had hardly anything new and credible to offer. The performanance of the Congress led government at Delhi and Bangalore, the latter being just one year old, had hardly anything to crow about. The BJP was still trying   to regain the credibility which had it lost due to its misrule for which it was punished by the electorate in the assembly elections last year and was bravely trying to put a united face by bringing back home Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu, There were many who had serious reservations about the outcome of this exercise, which was more a political necessity for survival than meeting of the minds.

That the two parties, were  unsure of their image was evident from the manner in which both of them enlisted the service of the celluloid star for mobilization of crowds and road shows, which only proved to be photo opportunity for them, rather than bridging the growing disconnect  between  parties and the people  in general.  The only sign of a higher turnout was the phenomenal increase in the enrolment of the new voters, which stood at a whopping 25 lakhs within a year of the assembly elections in Karnataka, with 15 lakhs having joined the electoral roll within the three month period preceding the poll.

It has been the common experience that the lower turn in parliamentary election singly held is always on the lower side. The normal gap is put around 5%. In the present context with Karnataka having 461 lakh electorate one percent means 4.61 lakhs.  Though in the ultimate analysis, the gap in the turn out voters between the assembly and parliament election could not be bridged but had been considerably reduced. While 312 lakh people had exercised their franchise in the assembly election, around 309 lakh voters did so at the just concluded loksabha poll. The gap was less than one percent of the electorate, which is quite heartening indeed.

. In  eleven of the  28 parliamentary constituencies, namely , Belgaum, Gulbarga, Bellary, Dharwad,  Udupi -Chikmagalur, D Kannada, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore  Central, Bangalore South and  Chickballapur, the voting in the  loksabha election was much more than what was noticed in the 2013 assembly election. It ranged from the highest of 1.26 lakhs in Bangalore South, where a key fight is on between Ananth Kumar of the BJP, on to his sixth term in a row and Nandan Nilekani, of Congress, the software wizard, to just around 5400 in the backward region of Gulbarga, which is getting baked under a scorching sun, where the Union Minister for Railways Mr. Mallikarjun Kharge is seeking reelection from a reserved constituency.

Was   the increase in turn out, a product of the Modi wave, as the BJP would like us to believe? For it is a known fact that almost all BJP candidates in the frey, including the BJP strongman in Karnataka, Mr. Ananth Kumar, a known follower of Advani, who is involved in a pitch battle with software czar Nandan Nilekani in Bangalore South for his sixth term in loksabha did seek the support in the name Mr. Modi and not in the name of the party or party’s programme. And the publicity material brought about the party focused on more on “Modi” factor rather than that of party. (As a contrast, none in Congress claimed a vote in the name of Rahul Gandhi, the Vice President who led the campaign, and who would be the prime minister in the event of UPA coming to power, which is unlikely as is evident from the opinion poll surveys already made).

One factor quoted in support of the Modi wave, has been the higher enrolment of the new voters. But the credit for higher involvement goes more to the vigorous campaigning conducted by the NGO groups and the pro active stance taken for the first time by the Election Commission in creating awareness about voting among the citizenry. This has been inspired by the Kejriwal phenomenon with the AAP downing the political Goliaths in Newdelhi through the instrumentality of the higher enrolment and participation in polling. One has no alternative under circumstances to inevitably vote till the counting begins to know what type of wave swept in Karnataka – a Modi wave or an AAP wave.  If, it was a Modi wave, it would certainly help BJP to retain the 19 seats it had won five years ago, its loss of power in the last year’s assembly election notwithstanding. Otherwise, it would cook the goose of BJP, and work to the advantage of the Congress,

The interesting question would be how and to what extent the higher turnout would tilt the balance of power in the 28 parliamentary constituencies.  It all depends on the differing political profiles of these constituencies. It is a tussle between Congress and BJP in all the twelve parliamentary constituencies in Northern Karnataka and two coastal region constituencies of D Kannada and Udupi.The JDS is not in the picture at all in these constituencies.

In the four constituencies in and around Bangalore, namely, Bangalore Rural, the Bangalore North, the Bangalore Central and Bangalore South, the JDS is relevant only in Bangalore Rural and in the remaining three, it is again the tussle between Congress and BJP.

The two constituencies,  Hassan and Mandya, feature a fight between Congress and JDS, with the BJP having a notional presence. In the remaining eight constituencies, it is a three way fight between Congress JDS and BJP in that order, with the first two enjoying better political clout. Kolar and Chamaranagar have been regarded as Congress bastions.

Since the political strength of a party is basically reflected in the assembly elections, the votes got in the last years assembly election collated parliamentary constituencies, throws up an interesting political scenario.

BJP led in vote share in ten parliamentary constituencies, namely, Chikodi (1.80 lakhs). Belgaum (1.56 lakhs), Gulbarga (less than 800), BIdar (1.61 lakhs), Koppal (77,000), Bellary (1 lakh), Dharwad (49,000), Kanara (less than 500), Shimoga (1,26 lakhs) and Tumkur (1.51 lakhs).

It was the Congress, which found itself better placed in lead  in sixteen constituencies, namely Bagalkot (63,000), Bijapur (54,000), Raichur (54,000), Haveri 7800), Davangere (82,000), Udupi Chickmagalur (8200), D Kannada (11,000), Chitradurga (1.23 lakhs), Mysore (1,55 lakhs), Chamaraj Nagar (44,000), Bangalore Rural (1.96 lakhs), Bangalore North(1.19 lakhs), Bangalore Central (51,000), Bangalore South(37,000),Chikballapur (1.69 lakhs) and Kolar (1.92 lakhs).

JDs had a  lead in Mandya (2.86 lakhs) and Hassan (1.27 lakhs).

To what extent these leads get altered either way, thanks to the entry of 25 lakhs   first time voters’ remains to be seen. One has to take cognisance of the fact that JDS, which tends to lose the support in  parliament election.

Eon 

Highlights

·         There was wave in Karnataka in loksabha elections.

·         Not clear whether it was pro Modi, or pro AAP

·         Two main political parties, had hardly anything to offer  except a plethora of mutual recriminations and invectives

·         Performananance of Congress at Central and State level was nothing to crow about

·         BJP gamely trying to paper out its mutual bickering of past

·         Poll turnout was record with two thirds of electorate turning up

·         Gap in vote share between assembly and loksabha elections practically bridged, which is another new phenomenon

·          In 2013 elections, BJP led in  parliamentary constituencies in vote share

·         Congress similarly led in sixteen parliamentary constituencies

·         JDS led in only two

  

 

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		Poll turn out
		2014P	2013A	Diff
1Chikodi		1070610	1072557	-1947
2Belgaum		1077823	1060925	16898
3.Bagalko		1078520	1106281	-27761
4Bijapur		968286	1038316	-70030
5Gulbarga		996848	991399	5449
6Raichur.		968071	1006104	-38033
7Bidar		962279	1021573	-59294
8Koppal		1006685	1068431	-61746
9Bellary		1045454	1026182	19272
10Haveri		1115328	1150305	-34977
11Dharwad		1040096	1034887	5209
12Kanara		1000834	1037159	-36325
13Davangere		1114385	1174993	-60608
14Shimoga		1129043	1130929	-1886
15UdupiChic		1032373	1015714	16659
16Hassan		1146354	1193231	-46877
17DKanna		1207162	1123194	83968
18Chitradurga		1097380	1243758	-146378
19Tumkur		1100617	1165404	-64787
20Mandya		1191708	1274912	-83204
21Mysore		1145140	1176362	-31222
22Chamarajnagar		1132553	1179275	-46722
23BangRural		1506780	1433174	73606
24BangNorth		1355372	1303468	51904
25BangaloreCentral		1075390	994542	80848
26BangaloreSouth		1113029	986040	126989
27Chikballapur		1261090	1250754	10336
28KOlar		1125529	1185367	-59838
Total		31064739	31445236	-380497
P stands for parliament
A stands for assembly
(Source: CEO Bangalore

Mathihalli Madan Mohan Senior Journalist and Columnist Hubli 580032 Mobile: 94480-74872 (Attn Mr. Guruprasad) First time voters hold balance For ENARADA-  (41)             Hubli, 16th Apr 2014 A record number of newly enrolled first time voters and the political debutant Am Admi Party (AAP) hold all the aces in the political battle for ballots between   the Congress and BJP   for the 28 loksabha seats in Karnataka, for which the poll will take place on Thursday the 17th April. .Karnataka has witnessed unusual flurry of enrolment in the electoral rolls, with record number of record number of 25 lakh being registered within one year, of which 15 lakhs walked in within three month period preceding the polling day. The average increase of voters for all the 28 loksabha seats from Karnataka is around 90,000, the highest being 2.74 lakh in Bangalore North to  51.000 in Kanara parliamentary constituencies.  Barring ten parliamentary constituencies, where each of them had a lead of over one lakh votes over other in 2013 assembly elections, the differences between the BJP and Congress comes within the ambit of the average increase in voters in at least 14 parliamentary constituencies. Whatever may be the poll turn out; this is one segment of voters who would not be missing the maiden opportunity to cast votes, since they have deliberately enrolled themselves for the purpose. If the new voters turn out to be part of the undercurrent of Modi wave in Karnataka, the balance will tilt in favour of the BJP enabling to retain the same number of 19 seats  (plus or minus one) it had won  five years ago, notwithstanding the  reverses it had suffered in the 2013 assembly election. If, on the other hand, they are part of the Kejriwal phenomenon who has proved that higher voter turnout can bring political changes, and plump for AAP, which is an underdog in the Karnataka electorate, whose presence has been hardly taken cognisance by the media, then nothing may happen to Congress but the BJPs game of raking maximum seats from Karnataka gets spoiled. The question of new voters veering towards the Congress simply does not arise, since they are known to be basically antiestablishment.  Moreover in Karnataka, the anti incumbency factor operates against the Congress at two level, the Centre and the state, with  the one year old Siddaramaiah government hardly doing anything to convert the negative votes into positive votes for Congress. All along, BJP was the only political alternative available to the new voters in Karnataka, which happened in the three assembly elections of 199, 2004, ad 2008 and 2009 loksabha elections. (2013 assembly elections was a little different. The BJP got its quota of increase, while the other claimants like Congress and JDS got the benefit).  But this time, the entry of the AAP, in the electoral scene has put spanner in the proBJP proclivities of the new voters. Besides the flurry in the enrolment is a product of the Kejriwal phenomenon of Delhi and hence AAP cannot be treated as an unknown political entity.  And hence the claimants for attention of the new voters have been two instead of BJP being exclusive recipient of attention in the past. On the basis of the political balance evident in the 2013  assembly, elections,   the Congress has a lead in as many as  16, the BJP in 10 and JDS in 2  parliamentary constituencies and give plus or minus two, it can expect to chalk out victory in about 14 constituencies in the minimum, even without any additional support.  But if the new voters plump for BJP as it used to  be done in the past, nine of the constituencies where the Congress is in the lead, would undergo change to advantage of the BJP, which would help the party to retain the plus or minus one of the total of 19 seats it had held in 2009. But if the new voters turn their attention to AAP or even share their largesse equally between AAP and the BJP, the latter’s goose is cooked, with the Congress emerging as the party winning the largest number of seats, pushing the BJP to the second position. In the four parliamentary constituencies in and around Bangalore namely Bangalore Rural,  Bangalore North, Bangalore Central and Bangalore South, there is a total of 7.29 lakh new voters. If all of them gravitate towards the AAP, the BJP’s prospects of upstaging Congress will go awry and BJP’s national leader from Karnataka, Mr Ananthkumar will be in problem.   The prospects of the new voters looking towards the JDS, the  third political party in  frey are not bright, since  it is known that the party not a favorite of the voters in the parliament election and is prone to suffer from the erosion of support instead getting any accretion to its base. Standing based on 2013    Assembly   Performanance 2014 LS Polls Cong BJP* JDS Diff First time  voters Cong/BJP Lead 1Chikodi 399096 499999 87985 -100903 BJP 58834 2Belgaum 307803 464431 102091 -156628 BJP 81472 3.Bagalko 503540 453274 82103 50266 Cong 77780 4Bijapur 371194 307765 240580 63429 Cong 95351 5Gulbarga 399302 400084 113668 -782 BJP 160328 6Raichur. 382354 327767 228635 54587 Cong 99226 7Bidar 275526 437370 170419 -161844 BJP 57837 8Koppal 404374 456898 144577 -52524 BJP 67754 9Bellary 337329 414420 109796 -77091 BJP 90932 10Haveri 500753 492937 36571 7816 Cong 91933 11Dharwad 327346 376749 155666 -49403 BJP 81532 12Kanara 298930 299420 212236 -490 BJP 51566 13Davangere 494372 410350 137820 84022 Cong 93253 14Shimoga 284321 408936 267730 -124615 BJP 73991 15UdupiChic 374814 366555 76338 8259 Cong 61165 16Hassan 395205 267696 480364 127509 JDS 85923 17DKanna 482896 471816 45888 11080 Cong 68412 18Chitradurga 505023 381359 200687 123664 Cong 77152 19Tumkur 274662 426572 416402 -151910 BJP 80245 20Mandya 347058 60103 542490 286955 JDS 94896 21Mysore 443463 288033 303172 155430 Cong 110059 22Chamarajnagar 382022 337877 198575 44145 Cong 58557 23BangRural 500947 304265 468468 196682 Cong 166128 24BangNorth 489864 369994 322666 119870 Cong 274763 25BangCent 324315 272642 131579 51673 Cong 175009 26BangS 411494 373589 130796 37905 Cong 214629 27Chikballapur 430793 261033 312080 169760 Cong 99039 28KOlar 313511 121160 368127 192351 Cong 88289 *Combined votes of BJP+KJP+BSRCong Source: Election Commission of India Eom 16th April 2014.