Battle for negative votes

Mathihalli Madan Mohan

Senior Journalist and Columnist

Hubli 580032

Mobile: 94480-74872

Battle for negative votes

            HUBLI, 11th Apr 2013.

           

            The forthcoming battle for ballots for the assembly elections in Karnataka turns to be battle for negative rather than positive votes.

            For vying for top honours are the two principal political parties in Karnataka, the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress with an almost identical electoral base. (The JDS, the other political party  in the frey lags too far behind)  And both of them have been singularly disadvantageous position to expect additional positive votes to enlarge their base. Their dismal performanance in discharging their respective responsibilities has not exactly endeared them to the electorate. Under the circumstances, more could be wrought for them to retain their base and check its erosion, lest the negative votes turn out to be favourable to their opponents.

            Take the Congress. They are expecting to catch power, which has eluded them for the past two elections, namely the 2004 and 2008. But the problem is that its vote base has become stagnant, since the last election it won in 1999.    Not many people may be aware of the fact that the party has not been able to secure single additional vote since in 1999. The party has been unable to secure even one single extra vote in the two elections which ensued since then. This was despite the fact that electorate went up by 58 lakhs   and polled up votes were up by 39 lakhs during the period. As a matter of fact, there has been a slight decline. The party which polled 90.77 lakhs in 1999 lost two lakh votes in 2004 and though it tried to make in 2008, it still could not come to the 1999 level.  It is not clear whether the Congress strategists at the state and national level have noted this disturbing trend. If they are aware, there is no sign that they have learnt proper lesion and have planned the necessary corrective action.

            There is however a silver lining for Congress. It is the loyalty factor.  Barring the minor deviation, its voters have remained steady with the party, whether the party won or lost the polls. Its performanace good or bad,  the change or otherwise  in the stewardship of the party at the state level, or the failure of party to project anybody as the future Chief Minister during the pre election period, have hardly mattered.

            It is a similar story for the BJP with some basic difference.    Its climbing up of the political ladder has been quite fast. After getting a break in 1994, when it could win 40 seats and notched up 35 lakhs and ensconced itself as the principal opposition party in the assembly for the first time, it has never looked back but virtually galloped to bridge the yawning gap which separated from Congress.  In about fourteen years spanning three elections,  it has more than doubled its vote share taking it up 88.57 lakhs and was  catapulted to  power for the first time in 2008.

             At a time, when Congress went through a trot of drought of votes in the 1999-2008 period, the BJP was experiencing bonanza as it were.   In the 2008 election, the party was just  short by a one lakh votes from Congress.  Even this was bridged in the string of bye elections which the BJP masterminded through Operation Kamala, in enticing the opposition legislators to its ranks, by making them resign from their party, and get them elected on the BJP tickets in the bye elections.  In the process   BJP was able to establish a minor lead over Congress in the votes tally, for the first time in sixty year old history of the state.

            Two plausible explanations can be offered for the BJP’s runaway success. Firstly, the BJP was free from the type of confusion of leadership which had dogged Congress. It was steadfastly pursuing the goal of power under the continued unchallenged leadership of Yeddyurappa. He remained the unquestioned leader before and after 2008 election, until he parted the company of the parent party, miffed as he was by the attitude of the party high command in making him resign in the context of the corruption charges and putting him in dog house saying that he could not come back to power till he was cleared of the charges.

            Secondly, not only the  voters remained loyal to the party, newly enrolled voters plumped for the party almost enmasse   This was  because   BJP positioned itself as a credible alternative to Congress after  short-lived  Janata Dal;s experiment of floating the party to capitalize on the growing anti Congress mood among the voters. Somehow, the BJP proved to be a hit with newly enrolled voters, who were yet to make their political choice.

             Under the circumstances can the BJP and Congress be able to keep the flock together. None is able to wager a bet at the moment, in view of the ground    political realities.  Both the parties have identical problems like lack of leadership and proactive organizational structure.  However BJP’s task appears much more arduous than Congress.

            The Congress is in a state of disarray organisationally, at the state and district levels. It has a set of leaders who are preoccupied with pursuing their own agenda rather than working for the party.  The frequent change of leadership has hardly improved the matters. As an opposition party in the assembly its performanance has been uninspiring and patchy. But its only saving grace has been the absence of any serious contenders to wean away the party’s base.

            But for the BJP the problem is different. Apart from its traditional rivals, it has to reckon with its own splinter groups headed by party men turned political adversaries namely Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu for cutting into the party base.  The possible loss as a consequence is difficult to quantify at the moment and even the most corrigible optimists within BJP concede that “some” loss is going to be there.

            In particular Yeddyurappa out of the party has proved to be a biggest bugbear that BJP has to contend with. Besides berating the party day in and day out, the Yeddyurappa has been making the BJP spend sleepless nights by his slow moves to wean away the party legislators.   His exit has exposed the chinks in its armoury, that it is bereft of the second line leadership. Both Jagadish Shettar, projected as the next Chief Minister and the newly anointed the party president,  Prahlad Joshi, are having a torrid time because of the antics of Yeddyurappa.

            Keeping the flock together has assumed importance   in the context of the fact the victory margin was less than 3000 in about 45 constituencies the BJP and the Congress being the major beneficiaries. Around the 16 constituencies, saw a keenly fought triangular contest. And all are on chopping block basically since these are vulnerable in the event of the even slight erosion in the base. Any slight tilt is expected to upset the political calculations.

            Newly enrolled voters, who are yet to make a political choice in the elections, are the real game changers in any elections generally, since basically apolitical nature; they would be making the political choice for the first time.  The upset results in the West Bengal and Tamil nadu are a case in point. In Karnataka, they have provided the political sinews to BJP. The number of newly enrolled voters for the current election is tentatively estimated at 15 lakhs. Would they stick to the tradition or go away from the BJP.  It is anybody’s guess. And herein lies the tantalizing uncertainty over the outcome of the next electoral battle.

,            It is anybody’s guess and herein lies the tantalizing uncertainty that awaits the political parties, who are getting ready to fight the electoral battle.

           

		Electoral Performanace from 1994-2008				Karnataka Assembly Elections
		Electorate		Valid Votes		Congress	BJP	JDS
2008		403.63		261.56		90.91	88.57	50
				65.11
				%		36.86	34.59	19.11
	seats					80	110	28
2004		385.86		251.29		88.61	71.18	52.26
		%		65.17
				%		35.26	28.32	20.79
	seats					65	79	58
1999		342.84		222.25		90.77	45.98	23.16
				%		40.84	20.68	10.42
	seats					132	44	10
1994		308.35		207.05		55.8	35.17	69.44
		%
				%		26.95	16.98	33.53
	seats					34	40	115	*
								*  Undivided J.D)

(Source: Election Commission of India)

Eom 07.26 hrs.   29^th March 2013

Uncared and ignored

Mathihalli Madan Mohan

Senior Journalist and Columnist

Hubli 580032

Mobile: 94480-74872

Uncared and Ignored

            HUBLI, 06^th Apr 2013.

           

            It may look strange but true. The number of people staying away from participating in the parliamentary system of governance in the state is on the increase

On an average one out of every three voters in the state prefers   not to cast is vote in the election, allowing the system to function on the basis of participation of 2/3^rd of the electorate.

            In a way, this is nothing new. The apathetic attitude for a whole hearted participation in the democratic process has been a fact of life of the Karnataka electoral process since the beginning. And the situation did not improve with the rise in the electorate and poll turn out. Along with the increase in electorate and poll turn out the number of people not participating in the poll has also been going up in disconcerted manner. .

            The impact of the absence of large number of voters was not felt for the first five elections in Karnataka since the formation of the state, since the Congress had unquestioned sway, with no opposition combination anywhere near the ruling party to pose any challenge.

            But the things have begun looking different since 1983, which should go as a watershed in the political history of Karnataka, when Karnataka voters opted for a bipolar political system to end the political hegemony of the Congress and voted for the first Non Congress government to assume office in the state. Since then power has been changing between Congress and Non Congress combinations at regular intervals, thanks mainly to the consolidation of the anti Congress votes.

            The scenario over the past three decades spanning over seven elections gives a clear indication of the developing dangerous trend.  Going by the percentages alone, it looks as if the uniform trend has continued with a minor variation here and there. But the real numbers gives the story a different dimension.

            Between 1963 and 2008, as the table given along with this, the electorate has gone up from 201.73 lakhs to 403.63 lakhs, the poll turn up increased from 132.46 lakhs to

261.16 lakhs. The number of absentee voters has almost touched 150 lakh marks.

            The 2008 elections was the second water shed in the political history of Karnataka, with BJP being voted to power for the first time which was a national record for the BJP, which had found it difficult to cross the geographical barrier of Vindhyas.

            Of the 403.63 lakh strong electorate 65.11% (261.66 lakh) voters had exercised the franchise, with 34.89 % (142.47 lakh) not casting their votes.

            The election turned out to be a see saw tussle for electoral supremacy between the Congress and BJP.  The BJP which launched a high emotional campaign,  appealing  electorate to give them a chance to govern, pipped the Congress for the top honour,  It polled less votes (88.57  lakhs) to win 110 seats in the 224 member assembly and the Congress which with a higher vote base ( 90.91 lakhs ) could win only  80 seats .

            For a while uncertainty prevailed over who could form the government. The BJP was the single largest party but had missed the simple majority mark by a whisker, as it were. And the Congress with 80 and JDs with 28 seats were singularly not in a position to stake their claims to form government either singly or severally. That BJP clinched the issue basically by roping in all the six independents and later firmed up its majority by enticing the opposition legislators through Operation Kamala. But what happened as a consequence of the artificial and unethical measures taken to get the majority is too well known to be repeated here.

            But the whole ugly aftermath of the post election developments could have been happily avoided had there been a slight increase in turn out (1% increase meant an additional 40,000 votes). One could dismiss this as a hypothetical question but it cannot be avoided. For it holds the key for avoiding the uncertainty over the formation of the new government and the consequence decisive impact it may make on the political scene and quality of the governanance.

            It has been a mystery as to why for such a long time, such a phenomenon has been allowed to persist without being remedied.  Fortunately, the state is free from such vices as muscle power noticed in some of the infamous Northern states, which prevents free exercise of voting power. Only other thing which has grown rampant over the recent years has been the money power, unbridled distribution of liquor and offering of blandishments of sorts. But these are done more to get votes rather than make them stay away from the polls. Under circumstances, factors like accessibility to booths, communication and glitches in the voters list appear to be the main contributory causes. All these of course come within the ambit of the administrative arrangements and why this has not been poll to remedy them by the concerned authorities is not clear.

            Till the day, there has been report of having any study made by the official agencies or the political parties to probe into whatever leads to the lack of lack of enthusiasm to take part in the poll process. The voters remain as focal point of attention till the elections by all the concerned be it the political parties or the official agencies like the Election Commission. Once the poll is over, they are a forgotten lot, only to be remembered at the time of next election.

            The political parties, who should have normal stake in higher turn out are hardly known to do effective ground work before the poll in undertaking booth wise survey to know the ground realities of the presence or absence of the voters in the area, the deletion of names if any in the voters list for taking necessary corrective action. Even the work of distribution of voters’ slips to the voters is done in a slipshod manner. Their main excuse is that they have hardly any time in view of the delay in the finalization of the candidatures by the party high command. In the post election period, also no postmortem is done and the situation reviewed as to the gap in the expectation and actual turn out of voters.

            On the eve of election, a publicity blitzkrieg is let lose on the people by the political parties as part of their campaign to garner maximum support in the polls. Whether the efforts bring any dividends in the form of newer electoral support is just forgotten once polls are over. And no political party is known to have changed its strategy to woo more voters and appear to be satisfied with whatever they get and election after election. The election campaign has become more of a ritual than any effective instrument to woo the voters. For example Congress, has not been able to get a single additional vote in the past three elections but is hardly bothered. It has been whiling away time on working on caste and community equations rather than go into the causes as to what is that has made  Congress unattractive.

            Official agencies raise a lot of ballyhoo on measures undertaken to make the polling, a voter friendly exercise, in terms of accessibility of the booths, preparation of voters list and all that. But on the polling day, the voters continue to be harried by the difficulties, foretold or otherwise which comes in the way of the voters exercising their franchise. The story of voters going round the polling booths in search of names or in search of polling booths, which are arbitrarily changed, has become quite a routine experience on the polling day. The Election Commission is also not known to have undertaken a probe into the incidence of low polling the high polling in the particular booths to check on the possible causes of malpractices if any

            One may not be able to ensure cent percent polling in the booths in any election but one can certainly hope to substantially improve the polling percentage if suitable steps are taken to remove the stumbling blocks coming in their way. And this hardly done.

            To put it in nutshell, these substantial chunks of voters, who   do not cast votes remain   uncared and ignored. Not a single sole has any drop of tear to shed on the possible causes which keep them away from performing their sacred duty.

           

Karnataka Legislative Assembly Election: Poll turn out 

             

            (all in lakhs)

Year	Elec	Polled	Not Polled
1983	201.72	132.46	69.26
1985	222.28	149.84	72.44
1989	286.24	193.4	92.84
1994	308.35	211.49	96.86
1999	342.84	231.94	110.9
2004	385.86	251.45	134.41
2008	403.63	261.16	142.47

Highlights:

• Every one out of three voters in Karnataka does not cast his vote in any assembly election.
• A whopping 142.47 lakh voters did not cast vote in 2008 elections.
• No effort is made by the political parties and official agencies to probe into the causes.
• Situation is allowed to continue without being remedied.
• A little improvement in turn out can bring about qualitative changes in political scenario.

Eom  07.04.13       1717 hrs,