This is a column on the happennings in Karnataka, with particular reference to current affairs bringing to bear more than four decade old experience in covering the current affairs in Karnataka.

Thursday, June 02, 2011

New voters bring change


HUBLI, 03rd June 2011

             It  is the bonanza of the new, rather than any shift in the loyalty of old faithfuls   which has upset the apple cart of the uninterrupted  reign of CPIM  in  West Bengal and gave marching orders to the scam tainted DMK government headed by the nonagerian Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu..
            This interesting   aspect, which could be gleaned from the poll figures, provides grist for the further study in the understanding of the psyche of the Indian voters, who has now perfected the art of playing his cards close to the chest
            Of the four states and one union territory which went polls, it was the elections in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamilnadu, which evoked considerable national attentions for the high political stakes involved.  In all these states, the poll turn out was quite high, with West Bengal topping the list, with 84.46%, Tamilnadu, with 78.80% and Kerala with 75.12%. In Tamilnadu in particular, it was the highest ever poll turn out, the increase between the previous and present being as high 11.20%. Women voters turned out in equal number in Tamilnadu. This meant that in terms of votes cast, an additional,     32.11 lakh in Tamilnadu, 82.81 lakhs in West Bengal and 18 lakhs in Kerala
            In the two states of Tamilnadu, and West Bengal, with diverse political and cultural background, the voters’ behavior was almost uniform. It looked as those who held reins in the two states were swept off by a one-sided tidal wave and in the case of West Bengal, made possible, what was hitherto considered nearly politically impossible proposition of breaching the citadel of CPIM.
            There was however one essential difference in voters behavior in the two states. While the newly enrolled voters did the damage to CPIM in West Bengal, it is the category of voters, who were exercising franchise for the first time proved to be Achilles heels of DMK in Tamilnadu. In both the states, base of the erstwhile ruling parties remained almost untouched barring minor erosion. But the bonanza showered by the new voters, which put their opponents in driving seat and placed far head in terms of the votes tally.
.           In Kerala, the new voters were  not one-sided but were quite even handed in bestowing their support, which resulted in a sea saw battle for supremacy between the CPIM led Left Front and the Congress led UDF,  in which the latter was able to pip the Left front combination in reaching the victory post..
            In the case of Tamilnadu, the electorate remained almost static between the previous and present elections.  In fact there has been a slight dip from 466.03 lakhs to 459.50 lakhs.  But poll turn out was a record, 78.78%, perhaps the highest ever recorded in the state.  In terms of  actual votes, the poll turn out was higher by 32.11 lakh votes,  with the turn out moving  up from 329.99 lakhs to  362.03, lakhs between the two elections.
            The additional votes that AIADMK led by the redoubtable Mrs. Jayalalitha (33. 81 lakhs) was slightly more than the increase in the turn out (32.11 lakhs). Perhaps a small chunk of old voters joined hands with the new comers, to help AIADMK net a total of 141.50 lakhs. The cascading effect on the political fortunes could be seen from the fact that   its tally of seats jumped almost three fold, going up from 61 in 2006 to 150 in 2011.
            As against this, DMK did not receive any single additional vote. As a matter of fact its vote share showed slight erosion to the tune of 4.78 lakhs, which moved down from 87.28 lakhs in 2006 to 82.49 lakhs. But in terms of the loss of seats, it was terrible. The party could win only 23 seats as against 96 it had got five years back.
            A remarkable feature of the performanance of the AIADMK, has been its steady growth in the assembly elections   Starting from 58.31 lakhs in 1996, it went up to 88.15 lakhs in 2001, crossed the one crore mark (107.68 lakhs) in 2006 and has reached an all time high of 141.50 lakhs now.
            As against this, the DMK show is dreary and dull. . From 114.23 lakhs votes in 1996, the DMKs vote base has shrunk to 86.89 lakhs (2001), 87.28 lakhs (2006) and it is still lower -   82.49 lakhs now.  The only consolation for the DMK has been that its ally, Congress had acquired an additional support of 6.60 lakhs this time. The additional support has not brought any dividends. It has meant a loss in the number of seats from of 34 to measly 5.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2011-2006 Comparative study
                       



                        2011       2006            Diff
Electorate
45950620
46603352
-652732




Polled
36203089
32991555
3211534
%
78.78
70.79





AIADMK
14150289
10768559
3381730




%
38.41%
32.64%

seats
150
61





DMK
8249991
8728716
-478725




%
22.39%
26.64%

seats
23
96





Congress
3426432
2765768
660664




%
9.31%
8.38%

seats
5
34

.
            The  West Bengal  scenario was  almost similar to TN barring the fact, the electorate increased by 79 lakhs and the poll turn out was two lakhs more – namely 81.81 lakhs.  And barring one lakh voters, the entire additional votes were netted by the Trinamul which got 80.35 lakhs.
            While the electorate had moved up from 481.65 lakhs in 2006 to 560.91 lakhs in 2011, the poll turn out had improved from 394.56 lakhs to 476.38 lakhs, between the two elections. The poll percentage had gone up from 81.97 to 84.46., which ranks among one of the highest electoral performanances in the state.
            The Trinamul Congress walked away with a whopping 185.47 lakh votes, showing an increase by 80.35 lakhs.  This is one of the best performanances for any party in the electoral history. For   one out of the every three voters in the electorate of 560.91 lakhs has voted for the party.  Its percentage share in the polled votes comes to    38.93. It has registered more than six times increase in the seats it has won the process, which galloped from 30 to 184.
            But its electoral ally the Congress did not share the bonanza that had befallen Trinamul. It lost 14.74 lakh votes but more than made it up, by doubling its seats tally from 21 to 42 in the new assembly.
            The CPM on the other hand, suffered an erosion of its vote strength to the tune of 3.21 lakhs votes and polled 143.30 lakh votes as against 146.52 lakh votes five years ago. It is 42 lakhs behind the opponent Trinamul in the votes polled. It has got   30% share in the polled votes its discomfiture lies in the fact that the loss of seats was more profound than the loss of votes.  Its seats tally has fallen steeply from 176 to 40. It has lost more than three fourths of the seats it had held in the previous assembly
            Its main ally, CPI has gained 1.23 lakhs and lost six assembly seats.RSP has lost more than 52,000 votes and thirteen seats.
-
West Bengal

2011
2006
Diff + \ -




Electorate
56091973
48165201
7926772




Polled
47638139
39456775
8181364
%
84.46
81.97





CPIM
14330061
14652200
-322139




%
30.081068
37.13

seats
40
176





CPI
876576
753217
123359




%P
1.84
1.91

seats
2
8





RSP
1411254
1463901
-52647




%P
2.9624457
3.71

seats
7
20





Congress
4330580
5805398
-1474818




%P
9.0905734
14.71

seats
42
21





Trinamul
18547678
10512153
8035525
%E
33.066546
21.82

%P
38.934514
26.69

seats
184
30





BJP
1934650
760236
1174414










            Though Kerala witnessed an increase of 16.63 lakhs in the electorate and its polling increased by 18.45 lakhs, it was free from the kind of blood bath that was noticed in two other states. The new voters proved to be quite benevolent, holding their scales even while lending the support. This led to a sea saw battle for supremacy between the Left Democratic Front led by the CPIM and the Congress led United Democratic with the latter managing to reach the victory post.

Kerala Assembly elections
                       

2011
2006
Diff + \ -




Electorate
23147871
21483937
1663934




Polled
17387651
15542289
1845362
%
75.12






Congress
4610328
3744784
865544




%P
26.4
24.09

seats
38
24





CPIM
4921354
4232381
688973




%P
28.18
30.45

seats
45
61





Cpi
1522478
1257422
265056




%P
8.72
8.09

seats
13
17





MUL
1383670
1135098
248572




%P
7.92
7.3

seats
20
7





BJP
1053654
738244
315410




%P
6.03


seats
0
0





JDS
264631
379286
-114655




%P
1.31
2.44

seats
4
5





KECM
861829
507349
354480




%P
4.94
3.26

seats
9
7


 
Despite success of the Congress led front, the fact remains that the CPIM happens to be the single largest party with a tally of 45 seats after suffering loss of 16 seats. .In the votes share also, the CPIM (46.10 lakhs) remains ahead of Congress (46.10 lakhs). The Congress which has won fourteen more seats this time to reach a tally of 38, still remains as a second to CPIM.
            The CPI which got an additional 2.65 lakhs votes had its seats tally reduced from 17 to 13.  With almost identical increase in the votes support, the Muslim League has improved its seats tally from seven to 20.
            Eom  03.06.2011 11.54 hrs. 
.




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Journalist with standing of more than fifty years in the profession. Retired as the Special Correspondent of The HINDU and has become a columnist on current affairs, the panchayats and other allied subjects