Mathihalli Madan Mohan
Senior Journalist and Columnist
Hubli 580032
HUBLI, 11th Apr 2013.
The
forthcoming battle for ballots for the assembly elections in Karnataka turns to
be battle for negative rather than positive votes.
For vying
for top honours are the two principal political parties in Karnataka, the
ruling BJP and the opposition Congress with an almost identical electoral base.
(The JDS, the other political party in
the frey lags too far behind) And both
of them have been singularly disadvantageous position to expect additional
positive votes to enlarge their base. Their dismal performanance in discharging
their respective responsibilities has not exactly endeared them to the
electorate. Under the circumstances, more could be wrought for them to retain
their base and check its erosion, lest the negative votes turn out to be favourable
to their opponents.
Take the
Congress. They are expecting to catch power, which has eluded them for the past
two elections, namely the 2004 and 2008. But the problem is that its vote base
has become stagnant, since the last election it won in 1999. Not many people may be aware of the fact that
the party has not been able to secure single additional vote since in 1999. The
party has been unable to secure even one single extra vote in the two elections
which ensued since then. This was despite the fact that electorate went up by
58 lakhs and polled up votes were up by
39 lakhs during the period. As a matter of fact, there has been a slight
decline. The party which polled 90.77 lakhs in 1999 lost two lakh votes in 2004
and though it tried to make in 2008, it still could not come to the 1999
level. It is not clear whether the
Congress strategists at the state and national level have noted this disturbing
trend. If they are aware, there is no sign that they have learnt proper lesion
and have planned the necessary corrective action.
There is however a silver lining for
Congress. It is the loyalty factor.
Barring the minor deviation, its voters have remained steady with the
party, whether the party won or lost the polls. Its performanace good or bad, the change or otherwise in the stewardship of the party at the state
level, or the failure of party to project anybody as the future Chief Minister
during the pre election period, have hardly mattered.
It is a
similar story for the BJP with some basic difference. Its climbing up of the political ladder has
been quite fast. After getting a break in 1994, when it could win 40 seats and
notched up 35 lakhs and ensconced itself as the principal opposition party in
the assembly for the first time, it has never looked back but virtually
galloped to bridge the yawning gap which separated from Congress. In about fourteen years spanning three
elections, it has more than doubled its
vote share taking it up 88.57 lakhs and was
catapulted to power for the first
time in 2008.
At a time, when Congress went through a trot
of drought of votes in the 1999-2008 period, the BJP was experiencing bonanza
as it were. In the 2008 election, the
party was just short by a one lakh votes
from Congress. Even this was bridged in
the string of bye elections which the BJP masterminded through Operation Kamala,
in enticing the opposition legislators to its ranks, by making them resign from
their party, and get them elected on the BJP tickets in the bye elections. In the process BJP was able to establish a minor lead over
Congress in the votes tally, for the first time in sixty year old history of
the state.
Two plausible
explanations can be offered for the BJP’s runaway success. Firstly, the BJP was
free from the type of confusion of leadership which had dogged Congress. It was
steadfastly pursuing the goal of power under the continued unchallenged
leadership of Yeddyurappa. He remained the unquestioned leader before and after
2008 election, until he parted the company of the parent party, miffed as he
was by the attitude of the party high command in making him resign in the
context of the corruption charges and putting him in dog house saying that he
could not come back to power till he was cleared of the charges.
Secondly,
not only the voters remained loyal to
the party, newly enrolled voters plumped for the party almost enmasse This was
because BJP positioned itself as
a credible alternative to Congress after
short-lived Janata Dal;s
experiment of floating the party to capitalize on the growing anti Congress
mood among the voters. Somehow, the BJP proved to be a hit with newly enrolled
voters, who were yet to make their political choice.
Under the circumstances can the BJP and
Congress be able to keep the flock together. None is able to wager a bet at the
moment, in view of the ground political realities. Both the parties have identical problems like
lack of leadership and proactive organizational structure. However BJP’s task appears much more arduous
than Congress.
The Congress
is in a state of disarray organisationally, at the state and district levels.
It has a set of leaders who are preoccupied with pursuing their own agenda
rather than working for the party. The
frequent change of leadership has hardly improved the matters. As an opposition
party in the assembly its performanance has been uninspiring and patchy. But
its only saving grace has been the absence of any serious contenders to wean
away the party’s base.
But for the
BJP the problem is different. Apart from its traditional rivals, it has to
reckon with its own splinter groups headed by party men turned political
adversaries namely Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu for cutting into the party
base. The possible loss as a consequence
is difficult to quantify at the moment and even the most corrigible optimists
within BJP concede that “some” loss is going to be there.
In
particular Yeddyurappa out of the party has proved to be a biggest bugbear that
BJP has to contend with. Besides berating the party day in and day out, the
Yeddyurappa has been making the BJP spend sleepless nights by his slow moves to
wean away the party legislators. His
exit has exposed the chinks in its armoury, that it is bereft of the second
line leadership. Both Jagadish Shettar, projected as the next Chief Minister
and the newly anointed the party president,
Prahlad Joshi, are having a torrid time because of the antics of
Yeddyurappa.
Keeping the
flock together has assumed importance in the context of the fact the victory margin
was less than 3000 in about 45 constituencies the BJP and the Congress being
the major beneficiaries. Around the 16 constituencies, saw a keenly fought
triangular contest. And all are on chopping block basically since these are vulnerable
in the event of the even slight erosion in the base. Any slight tilt is
expected to upset the political calculations.
Newly
enrolled voters, who are yet to make a political choice in the elections, are
the real game changers in any elections generally, since basically apolitical nature;
they would be making the political choice for the first time. The upset results in the West
Bengal and Tamil nadu are a case in point. In Karnataka, they have
provided the political sinews to BJP. The number of newly enrolled voters for
the current election is tentatively estimated at 15 lakhs. Would they stick to
the tradition or go away from the BJP.
It is anybody’s guess. And herein lies the tantalizing uncertainty over
the outcome of the next electoral battle.
, It is anybody’s guess and herein lies the
tantalizing uncertainty that awaits the political parties, who are getting
ready to fight the electoral battle.
Electoral
Performanace from 1994-2008
|
Karnataka
Assembly Elections
|
||||||||
Electorate
|
Valid
Votes
|
Congress
|
BJP
|
JDS
|
|||||
2008
|
403.63
|
261.56
|
90.91
|
88.57
|
50
|
||||
65.11
|
|||||||||
%
|
36.86
|
34.59
|
19.11
|
||||||
seats
|
80
|
110
|
28
|
||||||
2004
|
385.86
|
251.29
|
88.61
|
71.18
|
52.26
|
||||
%
|
65.17
|
||||||||
%
|
35.26
|
28.32
|
20.79
|
||||||
seats
|
65
|
79
|
58
|
||||||
1999
|
342.84
|
222.25
|
90.77
|
45.98
|
23.16
|
||||
%
|
40.84
|
20.68
|
10.42
|
||||||
seats
|
132
|
44
|
10
|
||||||
1994
|
308.35
|
207.05
|
55.8
|
35.17
|
69.44
|
||||
%
|
|||||||||
%
|
26.95
|
16.98
|
33.53
|
||||||
seats
|
34
|
40
|
115
|
*
|
|||||
* Undivided J.D)
|
|||||||||
(Source: Election Commission of India )
Eom 07.26 hrs. 29th March 2013
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