New voters bring change

HUBLI, 03rd June 2011

             It  is the bonanza of the new, rather than any shift in the loyalty of old faithfuls   which has upset the apple cart of the uninterrupted  reign of CPIM  in  West Bengal and gave marching orders to the scam tainted DMK government headed by the nonagerian Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu..

            This interesting   aspect, which could be gleaned from the poll figures, provides grist for the further study in the understanding of the psyche of the Indian voters, who has now perfected the art of playing his cards close to the chest

            Of the four states and one union territory which went polls, it was the elections in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamilnadu, which evoked considerable national attentions for the high political stakes involved.  In all these states, the poll turn out was quite high, with West Bengal topping the list, with 84.46%, Tamilnadu, with 78.80% and Kerala with 75.12%. In Tamilnadu in particular, it was the highest ever poll turn out, the increase between the previous and present being as high 11.20%. Women voters turned out in equal number in Tamilnadu. This meant that in terms of votes cast, an additional,     32.11 lakh in Tamilnadu, 82.81 lakhs in West Bengal and 18 lakhs in Kerala

            In the two states of Tamilnadu, and West Bengal, with diverse political and cultural background, the voters’ behavior was almost uniform. It looked as those who held reins in the two states were swept off by a one-sided tidal wave and in the case of West Bengal, made possible, what was hitherto considered nearly politically impossible proposition of breaching the citadel of CPIM.

            There was however one essential difference in voters behavior in the two states. While the newly enrolled voters did the damage to CPIM in West Bengal, it is the category of voters, who were exercising franchise for the first time proved to be Achilles heels of DMK in Tamilnadu. In both the states, base of the erstwhile ruling parties remained almost untouched barring minor erosion. But the bonanza showered by the new voters, which put their opponents in driving seat and placed far head in terms of the votes tally.

.           In Kerala, the new voters were  not one-sided but were quite even handed in bestowing their support, which resulted in a sea saw battle for supremacy between the CPIM led Left Front and the Congress led UDF,  in which the latter was able to pip the Left front combination in reaching the victory post..

            In the case of Tamilnadu, the electorate remained almost static between the previous and present elections.  In fact there has been a slight dip from 466.03 lakhs to 459.50 lakhs.  But poll turn out was a record, 78.78%, perhaps the highest ever recorded in the state.  In terms of  actual votes, the poll turn out was higher by 32.11 lakh votes,  with the turn out moving  up from 329.99 lakhs to  362.03, lakhs between the two elections.

            The additional votes that AIADMK led by the redoubtable Mrs. Jayalalitha (33. 81 lakhs) was slightly more than the increase in the turn out (32.11 lakhs). Perhaps a small chunk of old voters joined hands with the new comers, to help AIADMK net a total of 141.50 lakhs. The cascading effect on the political fortunes could be seen from the fact that   its tally of seats jumped almost three fold, going up from 61 in 2006 to 150 in 2011.

            As against this, DMK did not receive any single additional vote. As a matter of fact its vote share showed slight erosion to the tune of 4.78 lakhs, which moved down from 87.28 lakhs in 2006 to 82.49 lakhs. But in terms of the loss of seats, it was terrible. The party could win only 23 seats as against 96 it had got five years back.

            A remarkable feature of the performanance of the AIADMK, has been its steady growth in the assembly elections   Starting from 58.31 lakhs in 1996, it went up to 88.15 lakhs in 2001, crossed the one crore mark (107.68 lakhs) in 2006 and has reached an all time high of 141.50 lakhs now.

            As against this, the DMK show is dreary and dull. . From 114.23 lakhs votes in 1996, the DMKs vote base has shrunk to 86.89 lakhs (2001), 87.28 lakhs (2006) and it is still lower -   82.49 lakhs now.  The only consolation for the DMK has been that its ally, Congress had acquired an additional support of 6.60 lakhs this time. The additional support has not brought any dividends. It has meant a loss in the number of seats from of 34 to measly 5.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2011-2006 Comparative study

                       

                        2011       2006            Diff

Electorate	45950620	46603352	-652732
Polled	36203089	32991555	3211534
%	78.78	70.79
AIADMK	14150289	10768559	3381730
%	38.41%	32.64%
seats	150	61
DMK	8249991	8728716	-478725
%	22.39%	26.64%
seats	23	96
Congress	3426432	2765768	660664
%	9.31%	8.38%
seats	5	34

.

            The  West Bengal  scenario was  almost similar to TN barring the fact, the electorate increased by 79 lakhs and the poll turn out was two lakhs more – namely 81.81 lakhs.  And barring one lakh voters, the entire additional votes were netted by the Trinamul which got 80.35 lakhs.

            While the electorate had moved up from 481.65 lakhs in 2006 to 560.91 lakhs in 2011, the poll turn out had improved from 394.56 lakhs to 476.38 lakhs, between the two elections. The poll percentage had gone up from 81.97 to 84.46., which ranks among one of the highest electoral performanances in the state.

            The Trinamul Congress walked away with a whopping 185.47 lakh votes, showing an increase by 80.35 lakhs.  This is one of the best performanances for any party in the electoral history. For   one out of the every three voters in the electorate of 560.91 lakhs has voted for the party.  Its percentage share in the polled votes comes to    38.93. It has registered more than six times increase in the seats it has won the process, which galloped from 30 to 184.

            But its electoral ally the Congress did not share the bonanza that had befallen Trinamul. It lost 14.74 lakh votes but more than made it up, by doubling its seats tally from 21 to 42 in the new assembly.

            The CPM on the other hand, suffered an erosion of its vote strength to the tune of 3.21 lakhs votes and polled 143.30 lakh votes as against 146.52 lakh votes five years ago. It is 42 lakhs behind the opponent Trinamul in the votes polled. It has got   30% share in the polled votes its discomfiture lies in the fact that the loss of seats was more profound than the loss of votes.  Its seats tally has fallen steeply from 176 to 40. It has lost more than three fourths of the seats it had held in the previous assembly

            Its main ally, CPI has gained 1.23 lakhs and lost six assembly seats.RSP has lost more than 52,000 votes and thirteen seats.

-

West Bengal

	2011	2006	Diff + \ -
Electorate	56091973	48165201	7926772
Polled	47638139	39456775	8181364
%	84.46	81.97
CPIM	14330061	14652200	-322139
%	30.081068	37.13
seats	40	176
CPI	876576	753217	123359
%P	1.84	1.91
seats	2	8
RSP	1411254	1463901	-52647
%P	2.9624457	3.71
seats	7	20
Congress	4330580	5805398	-1474818
%P	9.0905734	14.71
seats	42	21
Trinamul	18547678	10512153	8035525
%E	33.066546	21.82
%P	38.934514	26.69
seats	184	30
BJP	1934650	760236	1174414

            Though Kerala witnessed an increase of 16.63 lakhs in the electorate and its polling increased by 18.45 lakhs, it was free from the kind of blood bath that was noticed in two other states. The new voters proved to be quite benevolent, holding their scales even while lending the support. This led to a sea saw battle for supremacy between the Left Democratic Front led by the CPIM and the Congress led United Democratic with the latter managing to reach the victory post.

Kerala Assembly elections

                       

	2011	2006	Diff + \ -
Electorate	23147871	21483937	1663934
Polled	17387651	15542289	1845362
%	75.12
Congress	4610328	3744784	865544
%P	26.4	24.09
seats	38	24
CPIM	4921354	4232381	688973
%P	28.18	30.45
seats	45	61
Cpi	1522478	1257422	265056
%P	8.72	8.09
seats	13	17
MUL	1383670	1135098	248572
%P	7.92	7.3
seats	20	7
BJP	1053654	738244	315410
%P	6.03
seats	0	0
JDS	264631	379286	-114655
%P	1.31	2.44
seats	4	5
KECM	861829	507349	354480
%P	4.94	3.26
seats	9	7

 

Despite success of the Congress led front, the fact remains that the CPIM happens to be the single largest party with a tally of 45 seats after suffering loss of 16 seats. .In the votes share also, the CPIM (46.10 lakhs) remains ahead of Congress (46.10 lakhs). The Congress which has won fourteen more seats this time to reach a tally of 38, still remains as a second to CPIM.

            The CPI which got an additional 2.65 lakhs votes had its seats tally reduced from 17 to 13.  With almost identical increase in the votes support, the Muslim League has improved its seats tally from seven to 20.

            Eom  03.06.2011 11.54 hrs. 

.